Predictive Liquid Democracy

Loke Hagberg & Samuel Färdow Kazen, working paper, 2023

Humanity today faces a number of critical challenges; to solve these, good decision-making is essential. We define a new decision making system, Predictive Liquid Democracy (PLD), which combines prediction market’s ability to aggregate decentralized knowledge, with the flexibility and efficiency of Liquid Democracy (LD). We show that a group using PLD will converge to an ordering from the expected best to the expected worst with regard to the group's shared goal, as the group size grows toward infinity. We conclude that PLD seems to be a promising innovation with the potential to take advantage of everyone’s, including artificial agents’, knowledge and creativity, to help everything from enterprises to countries to make better decisions. However, PLD needs to be tested in real world settings with various practical implementations.

Predictive Liquid Democracy
- A practical Implementation

Loke Hagberg & Samuel Färdow Kazen, working paper, 2024

In this paper we describe how Predictive Liquid Democracy (PLD) can be practically implemented. We define criteria for an optimal implementation of PLD, compare and discuss various design choices, define an optimal aggregation function for bets and values, describes an implementation into 8 discrete phases and define areas for further theoretical and empirical research.

Predictive Liquid Democracy
- A Case Study

Loke Hagberg & Samuel Färdow Kazen, working paper


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